Aftermath – Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos : [PDF Download]

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“Reinhart and Rogoff make the point that almost all debt owed by the United States at the end of the Second World War was owed to its own citizens and banks. Today, over 15 percent of U.S. debt is owed to foreign countries including China, Taiwan, and Japan.

These foreign holders are likely to be more aggressive than U.S. citizens and banks at diversifying out of U.S. debt and not rolling over maturing debt if they have doubts about U.S. willingness to pay or the prospects for inflation.

In short, U.S. and global debt has never been greater and the debt structure never more unstable. The debate between the Krugman-Stiglitz view and the Reinhart- Rogoff view will rage on for years inside academia. Meanwhile, in the real world, the effects of excessive debt are impossible to ignore.

Reinhart and Rogoff point to two possible outcomes of the current unsustainable debt situation. These two outcomes correspond to T. S. Eliot’s bang and whimper paths.”

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