Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures – Cutting-Edge DSP Technology to Improve Your Trading : [PDF Download]

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“There are two basic kinds of leading indicators: causal and noncausal filters. Causal filters depend on data and noncausal filters can be predictive from almost any other basis, including gut feelings. The Sinewave Indicator described in Chapter 11 is an example of a noncausal filter.

The purpose of this chapter is to derive the limitations and usefulness of causal predictive filters. It is a fundamental principle that causal filters cannot predict a specific event because their very value depends on that event.

That is to say, causal filters cannot anticipate a transient response. However, they can and do act as reliable indicators of steady-state responses. All moving averages have lag. A moving average is depicted as the dashed line relative to the original function (the solid line) in Figure 16.1a.

The difference between the two lines d is a constant value in the case of a continuous trend. Similarly, the lag k is also a constant value. The leading indicator is created by adding the difference between the original function and its moving average to the function itself.”

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