Cycle Analytics for Traders -Advanced Technical Trading Concepts : [PDF Download]

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“The efficient markets model statement that the price fully reflects available information has been assumed to imply that successive price changes are independent of each other. In addition, it has usually been assumed that successive changes are identically distributed.

Together, these two hypotheses constitute the random walk model. This model says that the conditional and marginal probability distributions of an independent random variable are identical. In addition, it says that the probability density function must be the same for all time.

This model is clearly flawed. If the mean return is constant over time then the return is independent of any information available at a given time. I assume that there are an adequate number of traders involved in making the market that a statistical analysis involving a random walk is appropriate.

There must be several constraints to such a random walk. The first constraint is that the prices are constrained to one dimension—they can only go up or down. The second constraint is that time must progress monotonically.”

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