Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market – Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves : [PDF Download]

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“Countries that are net importers meaning they make more international purchases than international sales experience what is known as a trade deficit, which in turn has the potential to drive the value of the currency down.

In order to engage in international purchases, importers must sell their currency to purchase that of the retailer of the good or service; accordingly, on a large scale this could have the effect of driving the currency down.

This concept is important because it is a primary reason why many economists say that the dollar needs to continue to fall over the next few years to stop the United States from repeatedly hitting record high trade deficits.

To clarify this further, suppose, for example, that the U.K. economy is booming, and that its stock market is rallying as well. Meanwhile, in the United States, a lackluster economy is creating a shortage of investment opportunities.

In such a scenario, the natural result would be for U.S. residents to sell their dollars and buy British pounds to take advantage of the rallying U.K. economy. This would result in capital outflow from the United States and capital inflow for the United Kingdom.

From an exchange rate perspective, this would induce a fall in the USD coupled with a rise in the GBP as demand for USD declines and demand for GBP increases; in other words, the GBP/USD would rise.”

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