Dow Theory for the 21st Century -Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results : [PDF Download]

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“The rationale for the significance of housing starts on the economy has to do with the number of construction employees involved. Figure 11.4 shows the lagging increase of employees as housing starts increased from 2000 to 2006. That increase in employment contributed to the economic expansion of 2001 through 2007.

You can readily see the lagging decrease following the building boom-bust of 2006 – 2008. The correlation of a declining employment in the construction area and recessions can be seen in Figure 11.5.

Other than the decrease of construction employment during World War II due to obvious reasons the men were needed in the war effort a recession has followed all leveling out and dips in construction employment almost immediately.

The one dip in 1966 – 1967 that was not followed by an official recession was followed by a distinct slowing of the economy. Industrial production fell from the first quarter to the third quarter of 1967, and many argued that there was a growth recession in that year.”

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