Evidence-Based Technical Analysis – Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals : [PDF Download]

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“Bear in mind the judgment about whether a data set appears random or nonrandom is not made with conscious awareness or intention. It occurs as automatically and unconsciously as the judgment involved in recognizing the face of a friend.

All heuristic judgments, including reasoning by representativeness, occur automatically and without conscious awareness. As a result, when a chartist concludes that a sample of price history contains authentic patterns and trends (i.e., that the data is nonrandom) and is, therefore, worthy of analysis, it is not a matter of controlled thinking.

That is to say, the chartist does not consciously pose the question: “Does this data appear as if it contains exploitable order and structure.” Although heuristic judgments slip into our thinking unnoticed, they can have a profound influence on our beliefs.

The problem is that heuristic thinking fails to take into account important features of the data that are relevant to determining if it does contain authentic patterns and trends that might be exploited with further analysis.”

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