Market Indicators – The Best Kept Secret to More Effective Trading and Investing : [PDF Download]

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“Analysts use many economic indicators to predict the course of the economy, typically assuming that the market leads the economy by six to nine months. (The market might turn up half a year before current industrial output showed improvement, for instance.) In theory, good economic predictions should help traders improve portfolio performance.

Sadly, however, it’s tough to make accurate, long-term economic readings and extrapolate them to market performance. The market is more volatile than the economy, an observation that led to the Wall Street old saw that “the stock market has predicted eight of the last five recessions.”

Moreover, very few people are good at predicting either the economy or the market. A classic 1985 Economist magazine survey asked many different people to forecast various 1995 readings: the price of gold, interest rates, stock market performance, and so forth.

Trash collectors and the chairmen of multinational corporations made the best guesses, outperforming former finance ministers and University of Oxford students.”

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