Predicting the Markets – A Professional Autobiography : [PDF Download]

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“Predicting monetary policy is obviously very important for predicting financial markets. To do so, I learned early in my career the importance of trying to think like the Fed chairs. I’ve had to think like Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen.

As I will explain below, Volcker was the great price disinflator, Greenspan was the great asset inflator, and Bernanke was the great moderator. Yellen was the gradual normalizer. To anticipate their policy moves, I’ve had to be their profiler.

That requires very careful reading of their speeches and testimonies to assess their latest thinking. I also read the footnotes in their prepared remarks and the academic articles they cite in their footnotes to see who is influencing their thinking.

This is an excellent way to stay current in the field of monetary macroeconomics. In addition, I often reread their previous pronouncements to monitor the evolution of their thinking. Some Fed chairs left a long paper trail revealing their thinking before they were chosen to run the Fed.”

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