Risk Return Analysis Volume 3 – The Theory and Practice of Rational Investing : [PDF Download]

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“There are hypotheses I know to be false, but I act as if they are true. For example, each day I assume that I will live at least one more day, although I know that someday that will not be true. That is why I have an estate plan.

I also know that an intercontinental nuclear war is not beyond the realm of possibility, but I am among the majority who have elected not to build a place where I can live while the radioactive dust settles. In other words, as a working hypothesis I assume that the event has zero probability of happening.

I similarly act as if there is no chance that markets (including the stock market) will cease to function for any appreciable length of time, e.g., because of an enemy or terrorist attack or our own political folly. Some “certainties” are more certain than others.

For example, I would be shocked if I rounded a blind corner and encountered a car-size sinkhole, but not half as shocked as I would be if I found that Godzilla was about to stomp on my car. Some hypotheses must necessarily be true if others are true.

For example, the truth of the hypothesis that a particular individual can be counted on to perform a certain task implies the truth of the hypothesis that other people exist.

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