The Art of Currency Trading – A Professional’s Guide to the Foreign Exchange Market : [PDF Download]

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“Interest rates are the most important variable driving FX markets much of the time and they tend to be a product of central bank policy. Both market-based interest rates (like bond yields) and the central bank rate are important for the currency.

Interest rates are mainly a product of market expectations for growth, inflation, and future central bank action and vary by tenor or time frame. While the central bank controls the front (short-term part) of the interest rate curve via its overnight rate, it generally has less and less control of rates as you go further out from the curve.

For example, 3-month interest rates will be much more sensitive to the central bank’s target rate than 2-year rates and 2-year rates would be much more sensitive than 10-year rates. Currency traders should look at interest rates all along the curve—from overnight rates right out to 30 years.

There is no rule on which part of the curve to look at when looking at interest rates.”

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