The Big Secret for the Small Investor -The Shortest Route to Long-Term Investment Success : [PDF Download]

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“We’ll begin by tackling the toughest problem of all. How in the world do we go about estimating the next thirty-plus years of earnings and, on top of that, try to figure out what those earnings are worth today? The answer is actually simple: we don’t. Instead, we just make the challenge easier.

We start with the assumption that there are other alternatives for our money. In my book, the main competition that any investment has to beat is how much we could earn “risk-free” by loaning money to the U.S. government.

For our example (and for some reasons I’ll discuss later), we’ll assume that we could buy a ten-year U.S. Treasury bond that will pay us 6 percent a year for ten years.

This is essentially lending the U.S. government money for those ten years with a guarantee that they will pay us 6 percent each year and then pay us all of our money back at the end of that time.”

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