The Three Skills of Top Trading – Behavioral Systems Building, Pattern Recognition, and Mental State Management : [PDF Download]

PDF Title:The Three Skills of Top Trading
Author:Hank Pruden
Language:English
Publisher:Wiley.com
Format:PDF
Total Page:303 Pages
PDF Size:6.56 MB
PDF Link:Read and Download

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“The three complementary tools for attempting to date future turning points are cycles, duration, and seasonality. Cyclic analysis promises the most in terms of comprehensiveness, and cycles give reasonable reliability and validity.

One can argue that duration is really no more than a subset of cyclic analysis. However, I think predictive accuracy and our confidence in our predictions are heightened through separate attention to the expected duration of an advance or decline.

Finally, there is the very impressive pattern of seasonal strength and weakness over a year’s time. Seasonality says that days or weeks of strength or weakness in market price tend to repeat year-in and year-out at much better than chance odds.

For seasonal signs we need go no further than Yale Hirsch’s outstanding Stock Trader’s Almanac. Time is of the essence in stock market analysis. Purchases should be made when prices are low, in anticipation that at a later date sales will be made when prices are higher, and vice versa.

Market fluctuations take place over time. That is why the control of market risk is called market timing. Time can be static or dynamic.”

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