Timing the Market – How to Profit in the Stock Market Using the Yield Curve, Technical Analysis, and Cultural Indicators : [PDF Download]

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“The volatility index is a measure of investors’ expectations for stock market volatility. The securities in the VIX are thought of as insurance policies on the stock market; and when people are afraid, they pay more for this insurance.

We can measure investors’ level of panic by looking at how much they are willing to pay for insurance. A more technical explanation boils down to this: just as the body mass index (BMI) compares people’s weight regardless of their varying heights, the VIX is a measure of option prices that removes their different time factors.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) collects data on eight S&P contracts that are close to the price of the underlying investment. This data is entered into the Black-Scholes option pricing model. Instead of solving for price, which was the original intent for this model, they solve for volatility.”

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