Trading Against the Crowd – Profiting from Fear and Greed in Stock, Futures and Options Markets : [PDF Download]

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“First applied systematically by Abraham Cohen, tabulating and quantifying the advice of the market experts is still used by sentiment technicians today for medium- and long-term timing of the stock market.

The basic idea is similar to the other approaches I have examined. In this case, though, it is the opinion of market “experts” that is wrong, even though they are the supposed professionals.

Too much optimism by advisors, for example, means there are likely to be few potential buyers left assuming investors are following their advice, of course.

Conversely, too much pessimism by the advisors suggests that there might not be many sellers left, creating potential for many buyers (and short covering power rallies). Extreme levels, like with other indicators I have examined, generally produce the best signals.”

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