Trading Binary Options – Strategies and Tactics : [PDF Download]

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“If the bid price is $20, the market is, in effect, assigning an 80 percent probability that the binary option for a seller will work out. This is the exact inverse of the buying probability. Think about this a bit further. Binary option bid/ask pricing becomes a trader scorecard of the battle between buyers and sellers.

It’s the best real-time measure of bullish or bearish sentiment. The challenge for the trader becomes one of knowing when to go with the crowd or against the crowd. Expected probabilities that the underlying market will reach or not reach a strike price are derived from bid and ask pricing.

It is definitely predictive in value, but it is certainly only a conditional probability. This is because markets can and do change and react to new information. Ultimately, the status that is important is the value at settlement time. In the case of binary options, we have only one of two outcomes: $100 per unit or $0 per unit.

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